Analysts Expect Bitcoin to Keep Growing in 2024
28 Mar, 2024 ● Crypto News
According to various experts in the field, the upcoming Bitcoin halving in April is just one of many factors that could lead to significant gains for the cryptocurrency this year.
Lyn Alden, an investment researcher, expects that the forthcoming halving event would reduce the daily production of BTC by roughly 450 units, down from the current average of 900.
Despite this reduction, Alden believes that the cut in supply is minor compared to the daily movements of fiat currency into and out of cryptocurrency exchanges and Bitcoin ETFs.
Alden emphasized, “In fact, inflows or outflows can easily exceed 10x of that value,” highlighting that the overall demand for Bitcoin plays a more significant role than the reduced supply in influencing its price.
Alden also pointed out that Bitcoin's demand has historically aligned more with global liquidity indicators, like the broad money supply, showcasing a chart that compares BTC prices with the global monetary supply (M2).
Alden elaborated, “So I think the halving is important, but it’s only one factor out of many that determines the occurrence and timing of a bull market. Various measures of global liquidity, HODL waves, and other catalysts combine to serve a larger role,” before expressing optimism about Bitcoin's prospects for the next two years due to several factors, including the halving.
Markus Thielen, CEO and head analyst at 10x Research, regards the current Bitcoin rally as comparable to the bull markets of 2020 and 2021, peaking initially in April 2021.
Thielen's bullish stance on Bitcoin, supported by quantitative analysis, strengthened after the cryptocurrency surpassed its multi-year highs on March 13, 2024.
10x Research predicts Bitcoin will reach $77,000 by early April and $99,000 by May 2024, following the cryptocurrency's new high of $68,300.
Thielen observed that every attempt to lower the price has been countered by strong buying pressure.
Reflecting on historical trends, Thielen noted that after new price breakouts, Bitcoin has historically seen up to 189% growth within 180 days, with peaks usually occurring nine to 11 months after such breakouts.
Thielen predicts that Bitcoin could reach an astonishing $146,000 between December 2024 and February 2025.
Despite potential corrections, Thielen maintains a price target of $125,000, expecting the bull market to persist until 2025.
Simon Peters, a crypto analyst at eToro, highlighted the uniqueness of the current rally, marking the first time Bitcoin has shown a parabolic rise and set a new all-time high before a halving event.
Peters attributed this breakout primarily to the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States on January 11, 2024.
Peters emphasized the shift in demand dynamics, with a notable increase from institutional sources, contrasting with previous cycles driven mainly by retail investors.
Exness financial market strategist Li Xing pointed to macroeconomic factors as key drivers for Bitcoin's price in the current year.
The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, alongside expectations for softer monetary policies and lower interest rates globally, are anticipated to enhance Bitcoin's attractiveness as an alternative value store.
Li also mentioned that geopolitical uncertainties, including those related to the U.S. elections, could further fuel Bitcoin's demand, potentially initiating a prolonged bull run.
Bitcoin halvings, occurring roughly every four years, are designed to decrease the mining reward and combat inflation, thereby preserving Bitcoin's scarcity.
With three halvings already in its history, the 2024 event will further reduce the mining reward from 6.5 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
These halvings have traditionally led to significant rallies in Bitcoin's price, exemplified by the 3,000% increase following the 2016 halving.
Sources:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-halving-analysts-bullish-btc-price-2024
