Bitcoin ETF Holdings Near 1 Million BTC

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could soon hold up to 1 million Bitcoin as early as this week, with traders anticipating positive market factors in November.

Expected tailwinds include the U.S. election, a possible interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve, and Russia’s lifting of its Bitcoin mining ban—all set for November.

Currently, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF issuers hold approximately 976,893 Bitcoin, valued at over $66.2 billion, representing nearly 5% of Bitcoin’s $1.34 trillion market cap, according to Apollo and SoSoValue.

ETFs would need $1.55 billion in net inflows at current prices to acquire the remaining 23,107 Bitcoin needed to reach the milestone.

This would require daily net inflows averaging $301 million to be achieved within the week.

Bitcoin analyst Alessandro Ottaviani observed that $3 billion flowed into spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past two weeks, remarking:

“If this pace continues through November, ATH will be [inevitable].”

Historically, Bitcoin has often experienced price surges in the months following a halving, the most recent of which occurred in April 2024.

The outcome of the November 5 U.S. presidential election may also provide upward momentum for Bitcoin.

In November 2020, Bitcoin saw a nearly 43% rally following the May 2020 halving and the election of President Joe Biden—a similar pattern could emerge, regardless of the winner, as CK Zheng, CIO of ZX Squared Capital, previously told Cointelegraph.

Henrik Andersson, CIO of Apollo Capital, commented that a Trump victory could be the “biggest deciding factor” for a market rally:

“If he does win, we believe the resulting momentum in risk assets could drive BTC to reach $100,000 by the end of the year,” Andersson told Cointelegraph, adding that such a move would likely set a significant new all-time high and attract worldwide attention.

Since November 2020, Bitcoin’s monthly gains were only surpassed in December 2020 and February 2024, the first full month after spot Bitcoin ETFs were introduced.

Part of Bitcoin’s recent price increases can be attributed to institutional interest, such as Emory University’s $15.1 million investment in the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust, according to an October 25 U.S. securities filing.

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee is set to meet on November 6 and 7, with CME Group’s Fedwatch tool indicating a 94.7% likelihood of a 25 basis point interest rate cut.

Rate reductions typically relieve consumer financial burdens, providing a positive short-term boost to markets.

Additionally, Russia’s decision to lift its Bitcoin mining ban on November 1 is seen as a bullish development, likely enhancing network security and decentralization.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $67,700, with resistance at $70,000 and strong support at $65,000.

“[There is a] MASSIVE pile of longs sitting just under 65K, which is also a very important support level,” crypto trader “Luca” posted on X on October 26.

Sources:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-etfs-primed-cross-1-million-btc-mark-ahead-bullish-november

https://sosovalue.com/

https://x.com/NateGeraci/status/1850692964642586916

https://x.com/AlexOttaBTC/status/1850640694265679929

https://sosovalue.com/assets/etf/us-btc-spot

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1377635/000137763524000025/xslForm13F_X02/usethisfile13F.xml

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

https://x.com/MirageMogul/status/1850075515496923146