Bitcoin Steady at $52,000 as Fed Rate Cut Odds Drop
16 Feb, 2024 ● Coin news
Bitcoin remained stable around $52,000 during the Wall Street opening on February 16, as the latest macroeconomic data from the United States exceeded expectations.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicated little movement in BTC prices as the week's final traditional finance (TradFi) trading session commenced.
Following closely after the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) two days earlier, the Producer Price Index (PPI) figures for January contributed to concerns about U.S. inflation.
The year-on-year PPI stood at 0.9%, slightly lower than the previous month but still 0.3% higher than market forecasts.
The combination of elevated CPI and PPI figures heightened market uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's potential fiscal policy adjustments this year.
According to data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of an interest rate cut at the Fed's March meeting dropped to 8.5% at the time of reporting, down from 17.5% at the beginning of the week.
"A March interest rate cut is likely completely ruled out after this data," commented trading resource The Kobeissi Letter on X (formerly Twitter), echoing sentiments expressed in response to the CPI data. "Furthermore, a May rate cut has become questionable as well."
While Bitcoin had reached $52,884 on Bitstamp the day before, its highest level since late November 2021, it faced selling pressure from bears.
Popular trader Skew highlighted the importance of the 21-period exponential moving average (EMA) on four-hour timeframes, currently situated around $51,000, noting the choppy price action and the potential for a "fakeout" before a significant move.
On February 15, U.S. spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) witnessed net inflows of nearly half a billion dollars, contributing to a strong week for these products, which experienced renewed interest more than a month after their initial launch.
However, despite daily outflows exceeding additions to the supply, some market observers expressed concerns about the ETFs.
In a recent analysis, Venturefounder, a contributor at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, suggested that a slowdown in ETF interest could lead to a substantial market retracement.
"Bitcoin ETF net inflow flatline/normalize is where the next 20-30% correction will start," part of X commentary alongside a summary of flows indicated.
A previous post outlined potential price floor levels for BTC, extending down to $34,000.
Sources:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-us-ppi-miss-52k-fed-rate-cut-odds-fall
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCGBP/?exchange=BINANCE
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1758484475032277441
