Crypto Whales Expect Donald Trump Victory

Donald Trump’s “Yes” votes on the largest decentralized prediction market are significantly influenced by a small number of mysterious entities, as political bettors have placed millions of dollars on the Nov. 5 United States presidential election.

According to pseudonymous political bettor Domer, over half of the Trump shares have been purchased by just five large investors, or whales.

This concentration could result in a payout of over $81 million for these major players, Domer noted in an Oct. 31 X post:

“Trump Yes shares are very highly concentrated. 5 fat cat accounts own 50% of the 162 million shares -- including the Le Giga Whale with nearly 1/3rd by himself. Those 5 will be paid out $81 million if Trump wins.”

In comparison, Kamala Harris’ shares are more evenly distributed, with the top five shareholders holding only 18% of her “Yes” votes.

Harris’ largest shareholder has just 4.4% of her shares, while Trump’s largest holder controls a significant 29.1%, Domer added.

The disclosure comes shortly before the US election, which has become a critical event for crypto investors, given the potential impact on the regulatory landscape over the next four years.

Domer informed Cointelegraph that at least four of the top six Trump bettors, including accounts like “zxgngl” and “Fredi9999,” might be controlled by a single entity, driven by strong confidence in a Trump win:

“My guess is it is a true believer who is very rich and trying to make a big bet. He is getting more confident as the price goes higher and is in a confirmation bias loop where new information keeps increasing his confidence.”

Despite experiencing some weekend volatility, Trump remains ahead on Polymarket, the top decentralized betting market.

Polymarket data currently puts Trump’s odds of winning at 56.9%, while Harris’ odds are at 43%.

However, Trump’s lead is narrower in other betting markets.

On Kalshi, 54% of bettors expect a Trump win, compared to 46% for Harris.

Traditional polling presents a different picture, with The New York Times’ national polling average showing Harris’ odds at 49% and Trump’s at 48%.

Some experts believe decentralized prediction markets may offer more accurate forecasts than traditional polling, as participants are investing their money based on their expectations, a point highlighted by billionaire Elon Musk.

Polymarket odds shifted in Trump’s favor on Oct. 4, reversing a previous trend. By Oct. 12, Trump led by more than 10 points, according to Cointelegraph.

The fluctuations in Polymarket odds, combined with Harris’ improved position in traditional polls, have led to profit-taking among investors.

Analyst Valentin Fournier from BRN stated that newly released polls showing Harris with a slight 2–3% lead contributed to the recent correction of Bitcoin.

“At the end of last week, newly released polls showed Harris with a narrow 2–3% lead. Given Trump’s pro-crypto stance and his ambition to position America as a digital asset leader, his potential loss is perceived as a short- to medium-term setback for Bitcoin’s growth potential. This political shift has contributed to recent profit-taking, reinforcing Bitcoin’s ongoing price correction.”

Some have dubbed Bitcoin’s October rally the “Trump pump,” noting that its price appreciation seemed to align with Trump’s improving odds.

On Oct. 29, Bitcoin climbed above $73,600, reaching its highest level since March 2024, just $200 short of an all-time high.

Other analysts caution that the current rally may simply be a “Trump hedge” lacking the macroeconomic fundamentals to drive Bitcoin to new highs after the election.

Sources:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-trump-election-bets

https://x.com/Domahhhh/status/1851819243953963012

https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1730721473480

https://kalshi.com/markets/pres/presidential-elections

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html